The IUSB Vision Weblog

The way to crush the middle class is to grind them between the millstones of taxation and inflation. – Vladimir Lenin

Archive for May 18th, 2010

Administration playing games with unemployment rate; elite media covering for them. BIG UPDATE!

Posted by iusbvision on May 18, 2010

We have seen it in the news, the unemployment rate went up to 9.9% from 9.7, ain’t this recovery grand? The pretzel like mental hoops the elite media has been going through for a year telling us how great the recovery is has most people just laughing at them. In story after story month after month the word “unexpected” placed is placed in front of month after month of bad economic news, followed by the assurance that the recovery is in full swing and the numbers are about to take a drastic turn around. Every month for a year that has been the story.

Check this out form the AP:

Burst of hiring aids recovery, but long slog ahead

The economy got what it needed in April: A burst of hiring that added a net 290,000 jobs, the biggest monthly total in four years. It showed employers are gaining confidence as the recovery takes deeper root.

But people who had given up on finding jobs are gaining confidence, too, and are now looking for work. That’s why the unemployment rate rose from 9.7 percent to 9.9 percent and will likely go higher.

Especially encouraging was that the job gains came largely from private employers, the backbone of the economy. They boosted payrolls by a surprisingly strong 231,000, the most since March 2006.

The new jobs, generated by sectors across the economy, are the first sign that the recovery is adding significant numbers of new jobs — even if not enough to absorb the influx of jobseekers.

“Companies feel more comfortable that growth in the economy and in their own sales is here to stay and that they can start preparing for the future and add to their payrolls,” said Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors.

As a recession hits bottom retailers and wholesalers will let their warehoused inventories fall to a point where they cant do business so they start buying to refill inventories. Those inventories are usually packed at that time because of inflation fears (look at how fast the Euro and Dollar have dropped). Consumers react much the same way as they will decrease spending as much as they can but eventually they need new things and have to restock their pantries with the savings they have built up from their decreased spending. The media did get this right about the inventory replenishing (LINK) and the result is an uptick in employment. This uptick usually doesn’t last long as inventories and consumer pantries are restocked. Remember that if .2% are looking for full time work again, it doesn’t mean they got hired.

The administration said that it is good economic news that the unemployment rate went up by .2% because it means that people who had lost hope and stopped looking for work are looking for work again and thus are “counted”.  Oh really?

Than why did the “real” unemployment rate go up by .2% as well? What is the “real” unemployment rate?

The standard unemployment rate is calculated based on people who are without jobs, who are available to work and who have actively sought work in the prior four weeks.

The “real” unemployment rate, also called the U6 rate, shows those who are available for work and want a full time job, but also have given up. That rate went UP by .2%.

Wall Street Journal:

The U.S. jobless rate rose to 9.9% in April, the first increase in three months, but the government’s broader measure of unemployment ticked up for the third month in a row, rising 0.2 percentage point to 17.1%.

The comprehensive gauge of labor underutilization, known as the “U-6″ for its data classification by the Labor Department, accounts for people who have stopped looking for work or who can’t find full-time jobs. Though the rate is still 0.3 percentage point below its high of 17.4% in October, its continuing divergence from the official number (the “U-3″ unemployment measure) indicates the job market has a long way to go before growth in the economy translates into relief for workers.

So how can people who weren’t looking for work restart looking for work by .2% and at the same time those who have given up looking for work go up by .2%? It’s fishy. The number of people who are out of work for six months or more also went up. Let us not forget that the Federal Government is on a hiring spree of IRS Agents and census workers.

UPDATE –  NEW ECONOMIC NUMBERS SHOW IUSB VISION ANALYSIS CORRECT

I have been behind on blogging and even though I got this article on paper a week after it was in my head even I did not expect to have nombers proving my analysis correct so soon. And as always there is that word “unexpected” when this was of course obviously and totally predictable.

AP: Jobless claims rise by largest amount in 3 months

The number of people filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week by the largest amount in three months. The surge is evidence of how volatile the job market remains, even as the economy grows.

Applications for unemployment benefits rose to 471,000 last week, up by 25,000 from the previous week, the Labor Department said Thursday. It was the first increase in five weeks and the biggest jump since a gain of 40,000 in February.

The total was the highest since new claims reached 480,000 on April 10. It also pushed the average for the last four weeks to 453,500.

“Although no one expects this volatile series to go in one direction every single week, this is clearly a disappointment,” said Jennifer Lee, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.

Stocks slid as investors’ already bleak view of the world economy worsened with another drop in the euro and the disappointing U.S. employment news. The Dow Jones industrial average fell more than 250 points in early afternoon trading.

In a separate report, a private research group said its index of leading economic indicators dipped slightly in April. It was the first decline in more than a year. Six of the 10 components on the Conference Board’s index deteriorated. Among them: U.S. residents filed fewer applications to build homes; vendors were slower in delivering supplies to companies; the unemployed filed more claims for jobless aid; and consumers’ confidence dropped.

 

Speaking of investor and consumer confidence we wrote about that HERE, HEREHERE, HERE, , HEREetc. This is happening exactly as we said, there was a bump in hiring due to inventory and pantry restocking but after the immediate bump high job loss would still continue.

More from Yahoo/AP News. Most of the top ten economic indicators down

NEW YORK – A private research group’s gauge of future U.S. economic activity unexpectedly slipped in April, the first decline in more than a year and a sign that growth could slow this summer, weighing on hiring.

The Conference Board said Thursday its index of leading economic indicators edged down 0.1 percent last month, the first drop since March 2009. Economists polled by Thomson Reuters had expected a gain of 0.2 percent.

The index is designed to forecast economic activity in the next three to six months.

“Slower growth is likely in store for the second half of the year as the boost from inventories fades away,” said Tim Quinlan, economist at Wells Fargo Securities, in a research note.

Goldman Sachs economists expect growth to slow to an annualized rate of 1.5 percent in the second half of the year from more than 3 percent in the first six months of 2010.

Factories have ramped up production in the past 12 months as customers restock shelves. Many companies cut their orders for goods during the recession and instead used up their existing stockpiles. Once inventories are restored to normal historical levels, growth in the manufacturing sector will depend on increases in consumer demand.

The recovery has spread more broadly through the U.S. economy this spring, with retailers and other consumer-dependent industries posting stronger first-quarter profits.

But a drop-off in the construction sector following the end of a government tax credit for homebuyers and a debt crisis in Europe may weigh on growth, discouraging employers from hiring.

“Unemployment claims remain too high to be supportive of lasting job growth,” Quinlan said.

Posted in 2012, Chuck Norton, Economics 101, Journalism Is Dead, Obama and Congress Post Inaugration | 1 Comment »

Mark Souder will be missed.

Posted by iusbvision on May 18, 2010

Mark Souder has resigned amid rumors that he had an affair with a staffer. I respect Souder for resigning even though it is clear that no one could represent the district better. He had a personal failing, but as a public servant Souder served with distinction. The people who will be hurt the most by the resignation are the people of Indiana who lost one of the best representatives in Congress. There is talk that Marlin Stutzman may be chosen as Souder’s replacement. Stutzman would be an excellent choice.

Click HERE to see Souder in action on the House floor.

Marlin Stutzman for Indiana 3 Facebook page.

Posted in 2012, Chuck Norton | 2 Comments »

NBC’s Chris Mathews “lets nationalize the oil industry”

Posted by iusbvision on May 18, 2010

And he tops it off with an anti-capitalist remark to boot. If energy was nationalized there would be more accidents, less energy and oil would cost more.

Our coverage of the oil platform explosion is HERE.

Posted in Chuck Norton, Journalism Is Dead, Leftist Hate in Action | Leave a Comment »

Secretary of Homeland Security Janet Napolitano admits she hasn’t read the Arizona illegal immigration law; trashed it anyway…

Posted by iusbvision on May 18, 2010

First Eric Holder, then Obama, now Napolitano…

Posted in 2012, Chuck Norton, Culture War, Obama and Congress Post Inaugration | Leave a Comment »

Bill O’Reilly goes off on Deputy Sec. of State Michael Posner over outrageous China/Arizona apology.

Posted by iusbvision on May 18, 2010

When I saw what Posner did, I wrote on YouTube that a pinhead of this magnitude could have only come from leftist academia. Come to find out that he teaches at Columbia and Yale. Come to find out Posner and a list of George Soros funded very far left open borders types (read nuts) are now working in the State Department.

UPDATE IV – O’Reilly Grills State Department Spokesman Over George Soros Funded Nuts Working There

UPDATE III – The lovely and tenacious Michelle Malkin has more on Posner’s history.

UPDATE II – Here is the video of the State Department spokesman admitting that he has not read the law either (Thanks to Michelle Malkin for the video link):

UPDATE I – Greta Van Susteren now reporting:

Here is an idea….READ IT! Stop being DUMB !

Assistant Secretary of State Michael Posner is reported to have likened Arizona’s new illegal immigration statute to human rights in China.

State Department spokesperson PJ Crowley defended Posner and Posner’s comments.  And then? He admitted he had not read the statute.

US Attorney General Eric Holder did the same thing last week. He criticized in harsh terms the new Arizona law and then admitted that he had not read it.

Is there any reason why the Administration is criticizing the statute without reading it ? That is intellectually dishonest (and plain dumb.)

It is one thing to criticize it AFTER reading it…but criticizing harshly without bothering to read it?  Is that really fair? or how about this, is it even smart?

Remember how the President found himself in some hot water last summer when he criticized the Cambridge, Mass police (said they acted stupidly) and then admitted he did not know what happened between the police and Professor Gates.  (Yes, dumb!)

Would his Administration not have learned from that messy experience?  First get the facts.  Second reach an opinion.  Third speak out.

Posted in 2012, Campus Freedom, Indoctrination & Censorship, Chuck Norton, Leftist Hate in Action, Obama and Congress Post Inaugration | 2 Comments »

Greta with Kris Kobach, author of the new Arizona human trafficking law

Posted by iusbvision on May 18, 2010

A very good interview with some very informative details. This is why Fox is number one.

Posted in 2012, Chuck Norton, Journalism Is Dead | Leave a Comment »