The IUSB Vision Weblog

The way to crush the middle class is to grind them between the millstones of taxation and inflation. – Vladimir Lenin

Gallup says unemployment UP to 10.3% – Obama says unemployment down to 8.9% – Who to believe?

Posted by iusbvision on March 7, 2011

Well the presidential election season starts in two months.

UPDATE – Question answered. First time unemployment claims are up 26,000 to 397,000 – LINK.

UPDATE II – Dick Morris comes out with the same analysis, two weeks later :) LINK.

Bloomberg financial says that unemployment unexpectedly fell to 8.9% according to the Obama Administration – LINK.

Investors.com says that job openings are down 30% with gross is hiring down by 893,000 jobs – LINK.

So how can unemployment be 8.9%, especially in light of the information you are about to see. Combine this with skyrocketing gas & food prices and why would confidence be up? [Note – In talking among some educated friends one of them said “The Administration is trying to polish a turd.”]

Gallup:

Gallup Finds U.S. Unemployment Hitting 10.3% in February

Underemployment surged to 19.9% in February from 18.9% at the end of January

by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist

PRINCETON, NJ — Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, hit 10.3% in February — up from 9.8% at the end of January. The U.S. unemployment rate is now essentially the same as the 10.4% at the end of February 2010.

The percentage of part-time workers who want full-time work worsened considerably in February, increasing to 9.6% of the workforce from 9.1% at the end of January. A larger percentage of the U.S. workforce is working part time and wanting full-time work now than was the case a year ago (9.3%).

Underemployment Surges in February

Underemployment, a measure that combines part-time workers wanting full-time work with those who are unemployed, surged in February to 19.9%. This resulted from the combination of a sharp 0.5-point increase since the end of January in the percentage unemployed and a 0.5-point increase in the percentage working part time but wanting full-time work. Underemployment is now higher than it was at this point a year ago (19.7%).

Jobs Situation Deteriorates in February

There is essentially no difference between the unemployment rate now and the one at this time a year ago; January’s rate, in contrast, showed a 1.1-percentage-point year-over-year improvement. This suggests that the real U.S. jobs situation worsened in February. That is, jobs are relatively less available now than in January.

In the broader underemployment picture, the situation is much the same. January’s year-over-year improvement of 1.0 points became -0.2 points in February. In turn, this suggests job market conditions in terms of underemployment also worsened during February.

This deterioration in the jobs situation combined with surging gas prices, budget battles at the federal and state level, and declines on Wall Street tend to explain the recent plunge Gallup recorded in consumer confidence. They also align with the continued “new normal” spending patterns of early 2011. Although Gallup’s Job Creation Index has improved over the past year and showed modest improvement in February, the improvement has not been significant enough to positively affect underemployment and unemployment.

Warren Buffet said Wednesday on CNBC that the U.S. unemployment rate should be in the low 7% range by late 2012. If that is going to be the case, the job creation environment must change dramatically from what it is today.

Gallup.com reports results from these indexes in daily, weekly, and monthly averages and in Gallup.com stories. Complete trend data are always available to view and export in the following charts:

Daily: Employment, Economic Confidence and Job Creation, Consumer Spending
Weekly: Employment, Economic Confidence, Job Creation, Consumer Spending

Read more about Gallup’s economic measures.

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